Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Melodie Monod; Alexandra Blenkinsop; Xiaoyue Xi; Daniel Hebert; Sivan Bershan; Simon Tietze; Marc Baguelin; Valerie C. Bradley; Yu Chen; Helen Coupland; Sarah Filippi; Jonathan Ish-Horowicz; Martin McManus; Thomas Mellan; Axel Gandy; Michael Hutchinson; H. Juliette T. Unwin; Sabine L. van Elsland; Michaela A. C. Vollmer; Sebastian Weber; Harrison Zhu; Anne Bezancon; Neil M. Ferguson; Swapnil Mishra; Seth Flaxman; Samir Bhatt; Oliver Ratmann; Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

doi:10.1126/science.abe8372

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Melodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, Daniel Hebert, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Marc Baguelin, Valerie C. Bradley, Yu Chen, Helen Coupland, Sarah Filippi, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Martin McManus, Thomas Mellan, Axel Gandy, Michael Hutchinson, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Sabine L. van Elsland, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Sebastian WeberHarrison Zhu, Anne Bezancon, Neil M. Ferguson, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

Afdeling for Epidemiologi

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

128 Citationer (Scopus)

68 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Artikelnummer	1336
Tidsskrift	Science
Vol/bind	371
Udgave nummer	6536
Antal sider	13
ISSN	0036-8075
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372
Status	Udgivet - 2021

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10.1126/science.abe8372

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Monod, M., Blenkinsop, A., Xi, X., Hebert, D., Bershan, S., Tietze, S., Baguelin, M., Bradley, V. C., Chen, Y., Coupland, H., Filippi, S., Ish-Horowicz, J., McManus, M., Mellan, T., Gandy, A., Hutchinson, M., Unwin, H. J. T., van Elsland, S. L., Vollmer, M. A. C., ... Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te (2021). Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Science, 371(6536), Artikel 1336. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372

Monod, M, Blenkinsop, A, Xi, X, Hebert, D, Bershan, S, Tietze, S, Baguelin, M, Bradley, VC, Chen, Y, Coupland, H, Filippi, S, Ish-Horowicz, J, McManus, M, Mellan, T, Gandy, A, Hutchinson, M, Unwin, HJT, van Elsland, SL, Vollmer, MAC, Weber, S, Zhu, H, Bezancon, A, Ferguson, NM, Mishra, S, Flaxman, S, Bhatt, S, Ratmann, O & Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te 2021, 'Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States', Science, bind 371, nr. 6536, 1336. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372

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title = "Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States",

abstract = "After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.",

author = "Melodie Monod and Alexandra Blenkinsop and Xiaoyue Xi and Daniel Hebert and Sivan Bershan and Simon Tietze and Marc Baguelin and Bradley, {Valerie C.} and Yu Chen and Helen Coupland and Sarah Filippi and Jonathan Ish-Horowicz and Martin McManus and Thomas Mellan and Axel Gandy and Michael Hutchinson and Unwin, {H. Juliette T.} and {van Elsland}, {Sabine L.} and Vollmer, {Michaela A. C.} and Sebastian Weber and Harrison Zhu and Anne Bezancon and Ferguson, {Neil M.} and Swapnil Mishra and Seth Flaxman and Samir Bhatt and Oliver Ratmann and {Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te}",

year = "2021",

doi = "10.1126/science.abe8372",

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issn = "0036-8075",

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T1 - Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

AU - Monod, Melodie

AU - Blenkinsop, Alexandra

AU - Xi, Xiaoyue

AU - Hebert, Daniel

AU - Bershan, Sivan

AU - Tietze, Simon

AU - Baguelin, Marc

AU - Bradley, Valerie C.

AU - Chen, Yu

AU - Coupland, Helen

AU - Filippi, Sarah

AU - Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan

AU - McManus, Martin

AU - Mellan, Thomas

AU - Gandy, Axel

AU - Hutchinson, Michael

AU - Unwin, H. Juliette T.

AU - van Elsland, Sabine L.

AU - Vollmer, Michaela A. C.

AU - Weber, Sebastian

AU - Zhu, Harrison

AU - Bezancon, Anne

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Mishra, Swapnil

AU - Flaxman, Seth

AU - Bhatt, Samir

AU - Ratmann, Oliver

AU - Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

AB - After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

U2 - 10.1126/science.abe8372

DO - 10.1126/science.abe8372

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33531384

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 371

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6536

M1 - 1336

ER -