Black Carbon Emissions from Arctic Shipping: Towards Captured or Common Interest Regulation?

As Arctic warming and sea ice retreat accelerate, expanding Arctic shipping intensifies the threat posed by black carbon emissions, a short-lived but highly potent climate forcer. Despite the urgency of this issue, regulatory efforts within the International Maritime Organization (IMO) remain fragmented and slow to advance. This paper investigates whether the regulatory process on Arctic black carbon emissions reflects regulatory capture by entrenched interests or movement toward common interest regulation serving broader environmental goals. Drawing on Mattli and Woods’ analytical framework on institutional supply and demand for regulation, the study combines doctrinal analysis with empirical methods, including document analysis and semi-structured interviews. It explores how, within the distinct setting of IMO, interactions among states, industry actors, environmental organizations, and Indigenous groups shape regulatory outcomes. By situating these dynamics within the broader context of international law-making, the paper illuminates how actors and institutional structures can both constrain and enable common interest regulation.