Dansgaard-Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Irene Malmierca-Vallet*, Louise C. Sime, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andreas Born, Nathaelle Bouttes, Peter DItlevsen, Michael P. Erb, Georg Feulner, Evan J. Gowan, Lauren Gregoire, Chuncheng Guo, Sandy P. Harrison, Heather Andres, Masa Kageyama, Marlene Klockmann, Fabrice Lambert, Allegra N. LeGrande, Ute Merkel, Larissa S. Nazarenko, Kerim H. NisanciogluKevin Oliver, Bette Otto-Bliesner, William R. Peltier, Matthias Prange, Kira Rehfeld, Alexander J. Robinson, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Guido Vettoretti, Nils Weitzel, Qiong Zhang, Xu Zhang, The D-O community members

*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningpeer review

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Abstract

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10-15°C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8-59.4ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D-O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D-O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D-O terminology, community progress on simulating D-O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D-O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D-O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D-O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D-O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D-O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D-O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D-O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D-O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model-data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftClimate of the Past
Vol/bind19
Udgave nummer5
Sider (fra-til)915-942
Antal sider28
ISSN1814-9324
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 8 maj 2023

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
This project is TiPES contribution no. 123. It has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820970.

Funding Information:
This project is TiPES contribution no. 123. It has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 820970.

Funding Information:
Evan J. Gowan is funded by an international postdoctoral fellowship from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. Bette Otto-Bliesner acknowledges funding by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under cooperative agreement no. 1852977. Xu Zhang acknowledges funding from NSFC (no. 42075047). Matthias Prange and Ute Merkel acknowledge support from the PalMod project ( http://www.palmod.de , last access: 14 April 2023; FKZ 01LP1916C), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Kira Rehfeld and Nils Weitzel acknowledge funding by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), project no. 395588486, and the PalMod project ( https://www.palmod.de/ , last access: 13 October 2022), subproject no. 01LP1926C. Chuncheng Guo acknowledges funding from the Research Council of Norway under grant no. 325333 (ABRUPT).

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