TY - JOUR
T1 - Disease Trajectories and Impact of One Moderate Exacerbation in Gold B COPD Patients
AU - Lokke, Anders
AU - Hilberg, Ole
AU - Lange, Peter
AU - Ibsen, Rikke
AU - Stratelis, Georgios
AU - Licht, Sofie de Fine
AU - Lykkegaard, Jesper
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - Introduction: Studies have shown that exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) increases the risk of further exacerbations. Our aim was to investigate the impact of a single moderate exacerbation on the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death in GOLD B COPD patients. Methods: This hospital-based nationwide, cohort study in Denmark included all patients >40 years of age with an in-and/or outpatient ICD-10 J44 diagnosis (COPD Register, 2008-2014). Index was date of first registered modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) score >2; baseline period was 12 months pre-index. At index, patients were grouped as: B0, no exacerbation; and B1, one moderate exacerbation during the previous year, and followed for three consecutive years in 2008-2017 for development of moderate (short-term use of prednisolone or prednisone) and severe (emergency visit or hospitalization) exacerbations and death. Using B0 as reference, the odds ratio (OR) for exacerbation and death in GOLD B1 was estimated with multinominal logistic regression and a Cox model estimated the hazard ratio for exacerbation accounting for recurrent events. Results: In total, 8,453 patients (mean age 70 years, 51% male) were included, of which GOLD B0 4,545 and GOLD B1 3,908 patients. During the 3-year follow-up, 34.1% and 24.9% of GOLD B0 and B1, respectively, had none or one moderate exacerbation whereas 61.9% and 71.2% of B0 and B1, respectively, had a severe trajectory with multiple moderate and/or a severe exacerbation or died. In B1 patients, the OR for 1 moderate, >2 moderate exacerbations, >1 severe exacerbation was 1.58 [CI 1.33-1.87], 2.60 [2.19- 3.08], 2.08 [1.76-2.45], respectively, and 1.85 [1.57-2.17] for death compared with B0. Conclusion: One moderate exacerbation in COPD patients with high symptom burden increases the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death during the three following years. The results emphasize the importance of preventing exacerbations in GOLD B patients.
AB - Introduction: Studies have shown that exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) increases the risk of further exacerbations. Our aim was to investigate the impact of a single moderate exacerbation on the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death in GOLD B COPD patients. Methods: This hospital-based nationwide, cohort study in Denmark included all patients >40 years of age with an in-and/or outpatient ICD-10 J44 diagnosis (COPD Register, 2008-2014). Index was date of first registered modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) score >2; baseline period was 12 months pre-index. At index, patients were grouped as: B0, no exacerbation; and B1, one moderate exacerbation during the previous year, and followed for three consecutive years in 2008-2017 for development of moderate (short-term use of prednisolone or prednisone) and severe (emergency visit or hospitalization) exacerbations and death. Using B0 as reference, the odds ratio (OR) for exacerbation and death in GOLD B1 was estimated with multinominal logistic regression and a Cox model estimated the hazard ratio for exacerbation accounting for recurrent events. Results: In total, 8,453 patients (mean age 70 years, 51% male) were included, of which GOLD B0 4,545 and GOLD B1 3,908 patients. During the 3-year follow-up, 34.1% and 24.9% of GOLD B0 and B1, respectively, had none or one moderate exacerbation whereas 61.9% and 71.2% of B0 and B1, respectively, had a severe trajectory with multiple moderate and/or a severe exacerbation or died. In B1 patients, the OR for 1 moderate, >2 moderate exacerbations, >1 severe exacerbation was 1.58 [CI 1.33-1.87], 2.60 [2.19- 3.08], 2.08 [1.76-2.45], respectively, and 1.85 [1.57-2.17] for death compared with B0. Conclusion: One moderate exacerbation in COPD patients with high symptom burden increases the odds of subsequent exacerbations and death during the three following years. The results emphasize the importance of preventing exacerbations in GOLD B patients.
KW - COPD
KW - exacerbation
KW - dyspnea
KW - GOLD
KW - mortality
KW - epidemiology
KW - OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY-DISEASE
KW - MORTALITY
KW - OUTCOMES
KW - QUALITY
KW - BURDEN
U2 - 10.2147/COPD.S344669
DO - 10.2147/COPD.S344669
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 35321533
VL - 17
SP - 569
EP - 578
JO - International Journal of COPD
JF - International Journal of COPD
SN - 1178-2005
ER -