TY - JOUR
T1 - Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots
T2 - A Study Based on CORDEX Data
AU - Spinoni, Jonathan
AU - Barbosa, Paulo
AU - Bucchignani, Edoardo
AU - Cassano, John
AU - Cavazos, Tereza
AU - Christensen, Jens H.
AU - Christensen, Ole B.
AU - Coppola, Erika
AU - Evans, Jason
AU - Geyer, Beate
AU - Giorgi, Filippo
AU - Hadjinicolaou, Panos
AU - Jacob, Daniela
AU - Katzfey, Jack
AU - Koenigk, Torben
AU - Laprise, Rene
AU - Lennard, Christopher J.
AU - Kurnaz, M. Levent
AU - Li, Delei
AU - Llopart, Marta
AU - McCormick, Niall
AU - Naumann, Gustavo
AU - Nikulin, Grigory
AU - Ozturk, Tugba
AU - Panitz, Hans-Juergen
AU - da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio
AU - Rockel, Burkhardt
AU - Solman, Silvina A.
AU - Syktus, Jozef
AU - Tangang, Fredolin
AU - Teichmann, Claas
AU - Vautard, Robert
AU - Vogt, Juergen V.
AU - Winger, Katja
AU - Zittis, George
AU - Dosio, Alessandro
PY - 2020/5
Y1 - 2020/5
N2 - Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
AB - Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS
KW - EARTH SYSTEM MODEL
KW - POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
KW - PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
KW - HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS
KW - FOOD SECURITY
KW - CMIP5
KW - TEMPERATURE
KW - MULTIMODEL
KW - SIMULATIONS
U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
M3 - Journal article
VL - 33
SP - 3635
EP - 3661
JO - Journal of Climate
JF - Journal of Climate
SN - 0894-8755
IS - 9
ER -