Abstract
Aims
Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11th Edition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories (“countries”), and projected to 2040.
Methods
The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similar settings.
Results
There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0–14, and 0.8 million aged 15–19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0–14 and 58,000 aged 15–19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projected T1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million.
Conclusions
The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.
Globally, symptomatic type 1 diabetes (T1D) prevalence varies markedly. The International Diabetes Federation 11th Edition Atlas/T1D Index Version 3.0 estimated 2025 numbers for 202 countries/territories (“countries”), and projected to 2040.
Methods
The T1D Index model, a Markov model with sub-models for incidence-over-time, adult incidence, and mortality-over-time, was updated with recent population-based T1D incidence, mortality and prevalence studies. For countries without studies, data were extrapolated from countries with similar settings.
Results
There are estimated 9.5 million people living with T1D globally (compared to 8.4 million in 2021, a 13 % increase), with 1.0 million of these aged 0–14, and 0.8 million aged 15–19 years. In lower-income countries, prevalent cases increased by 20 % from 1.8 million in 2021 to 2.1 million in 2025. Incident cases in 2025 are an estimated 513,000 (164,000 aged 0–14 and 58,000 aged 15–19 years), with incidence increasing by 2.4 % in the last year. Premature deaths are estimated at 174,000, with 17.2 % of these due to non-diagnosis soon after clinical onset. The estimated remaining life expectancy of a 10-year-old child diagnosed with T1D in 2025 varies between countries from 6 to 66 years. There are still no data available for 119 countries. The projected T1D population for 2040 is estimated to be14.7 million.
Conclusions
The number of global T1D cases is rising quickly, especially in lower-income settings, due to increasing diagnosed incidence, falling mortality and ageing, and population growth. Contemporary data are unavailable for over 50% of all countries, highlighting need for epidemiological studies.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Artikelnummer | 112277 |
| Tidsskrift | Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice |
| Vol/bind | 225 |
| Antal sider | 12 |
| ISSN | 0168-8227 |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2025 |
Bibliografisk note
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