Height of conscripts in Europe: Is postneonatal mortality a predictor?

The height of conscripts has increased steadily during recent decades in Europe. We have collected data on conscript height from 11 European countries to examine if this trend is continuing. In the Scandinavian countries and The Netherlands the increase in height reached a plateau during the 1980s, while the trend towards increasing adult height continued in the middle and southern European countries. There are still large differences between the countries (1990: The Netherlands 181·2 cm and Portugal 170·3 cm), with a marked trend for the tallest conscripts to be in the north and the shortest in the south. It has been suggested that the secular increase in adult height is mainly determined by an increase in growth during the first years of life. We examined postneonatal mortality (PNM) as a proxy for adverse environmental factors, mainly poor nutrition and infections, affecting growth during infancy, and related it to conscript height in the European countries. The general pattern was a rapid decrease in PNM until a low level was reached, after which it remained low, or decreased only very slowly. In countries where the increase in conscript height has levelled off, PNM reached a low and stable level (about 3-5 per thousand) approximately two decades before this stagnation. We speculate that the increase in height will continue in the rest of the European countries until approximately two decades after PNM has reached the same low level.