Abstract
Background
In the United States, the prevalence of obesity among adults has increased 3-fold since the 1980s, but patterns of incidence of new cases of obesity are not known.
Objectives
To examine the incidence of new cases of obesity: overall, by demographic and educational subgroups, by weight status, and changes during this century.
Methods
We analyzed adult (≥20 y) anthropometric records from the US nationally representative Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 2001 to 2017. Among those not having obesity (body mass index, BMI, ≥30 kg/m2) at first observation, we used Poisson models to estimate the incidence of obesity [cases/1000 person-years (PYs)] and incidence rate ratio (IRR).
Results
Among 13,888 adults followed for 115,797 PYs, the incidence of obesity in 2001–2017 was 28.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 26.7, 29.7). Over the periods 2001–2005, 2005–2009, and 2009–2013, the incidence of obesity was stable, but in 2013–2017 the incidence increased by 18% compared to 2009–2013 [IRR: 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.30)]. Blacks had higher obesity incidence [47.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 42.7, 53.1)] than Whites [26.2/1000 PYs (95% CI: 24.6, 27.9)]. Risk was particularly high among Black females [57.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 49.1, 66.8)] and Black young adults (20–29 y) [65.5/1000 PYs (95% CI: 54.2, 76.7)]. Across race, obesity incidence was highest in young adults (20–29 y) [34.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 31.5, 36.7)] and declined with age [age 70+ y: 18.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 16.6, 21.8)]. Those with overweight had an obesity risk 7 times higher than those with normal weight [62.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 58.8, 65.3) vs. 8.8/1000 PYs (95% CI: 8.1, 9.6)]. Those with less than high-school education had higher obesity incidence than those with education beyond high-school [39.4/1000 PYs (95% CI: 34.4, 44.4) vs. 24.7/1000 PYs (95% CI: 23.1, 26.3)].
Conclusions
Incidence of obesity was stable over the first 13 y of the last 2 decades but increased by 18% in 2013–2017. Blacks and younger adults were at highest risk, and those with overweight were also at high risk for developing obesit
In the United States, the prevalence of obesity among adults has increased 3-fold since the 1980s, but patterns of incidence of new cases of obesity are not known.
Objectives
To examine the incidence of new cases of obesity: overall, by demographic and educational subgroups, by weight status, and changes during this century.
Methods
We analyzed adult (≥20 y) anthropometric records from the US nationally representative Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 2001 to 2017. Among those not having obesity (body mass index, BMI, ≥30 kg/m2) at first observation, we used Poisson models to estimate the incidence of obesity [cases/1000 person-years (PYs)] and incidence rate ratio (IRR).
Results
Among 13,888 adults followed for 115,797 PYs, the incidence of obesity in 2001–2017 was 28.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 26.7, 29.7). Over the periods 2001–2005, 2005–2009, and 2009–2013, the incidence of obesity was stable, but in 2013–2017 the incidence increased by 18% compared to 2009–2013 [IRR: 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.30)]. Blacks had higher obesity incidence [47.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 42.7, 53.1)] than Whites [26.2/1000 PYs (95% CI: 24.6, 27.9)]. Risk was particularly high among Black females [57.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 49.1, 66.8)] and Black young adults (20–29 y) [65.5/1000 PYs (95% CI: 54.2, 76.7)]. Across race, obesity incidence was highest in young adults (20–29 y) [34.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 31.5, 36.7)] and declined with age [age 70+ y: 18.9/1000 PYs (95% CI: 16.6, 21.8)]. Those with overweight had an obesity risk 7 times higher than those with normal weight [62.1/1000 PYs (95% CI: 58.8, 65.3) vs. 8.8/1000 PYs (95% CI: 8.1, 9.6)]. Those with less than high-school education had higher obesity incidence than those with education beyond high-school [39.4/1000 PYs (95% CI: 34.4, 44.4) vs. 24.7/1000 PYs (95% CI: 23.1, 26.3)].
Conclusions
Incidence of obesity was stable over the first 13 y of the last 2 decades but increased by 18% in 2013–2017. Blacks and younger adults were at highest risk, and those with overweight were also at high risk for developing obesit
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Bogserie | American Journal of Clinical Nutrition |
| Vol/bind | 117 |
| Udgave nummer | 1 |
| Sider (fra-til) | 141-148 |
| Antal sider | 8 |
| ISSN | 0002-9165 |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2023 |