Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model

Katrin Håkansson; Daha Hassan Muse; Anna Bäck; Jacob H. Rasmussen; Anne Marie Lindegaard; Lena Specht; Jeppe Friborg; Hedda Haugen Cange; Ivan R. Vogelius

doi:10.1002/hed.28085

Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model

Katrin Håkansson, Daha Hassan Muse, Anna Bäck, Jacob H. Rasmussen, Anne Marie Lindegaard, Lena Specht, Jeppe Friborg, Hedda Haugen Cange, Ivan R. Vogelius

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.

AIM: to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).

GOAL: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.

METHODS: Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).

RESULTS: The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.

CONCLUSIONS: The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Head & Neck - Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck
Antal sider	8
ISSN	1043-3074
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.28085
Status	E-pub ahead of print - 31 jan. 2025

Bibliografisk note

Adgang til dokumentet

10.1002/hed.28085Licens: CC BY-NC

Citationsformater

Håkansson, K., Muse, D. H., Bäck, A., Rasmussen, J. H., Lindegaard, A. M., Specht, L., Friborg, J., Cange, H. H., & Vogelius, I. R. (2025). Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model. Head & Neck - Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.28085

Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model. / Håkansson, Katrin; Muse, Daha Hassan; Bäck, Anna et al.
I: Head & Neck - Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck, 31.01.2025.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

Håkansson, K, Muse, DH, Bäck, A, Rasmussen, JH, Lindegaard, AM, Specht, L , Friborg, J, Cange, HH & Vogelius, IR 2025, 'Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model', Head & Neck - Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck. https://doi.org/10.1002/hed.28085

Håkansson K, Muse DH, Bäck A, Rasmussen JH, Lindegaard AM, Specht L et al. Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model. Head & Neck - Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck. 2025 jan. 31. Epub 2025 jan. 31. doi: 10.1002/hed.28085

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title = "Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.AIM: to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).GOAL: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.METHODS: Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).RESULTS: The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.CONCLUSIONS: The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.",

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T1 - Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer

T2 - UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model

AU - Håkansson, Katrin

AU - Muse, Daha Hassan

AU - Bäck, Anna

AU - Rasmussen, Jacob H.

AU - Lindegaard, Anne Marie

AU - Specht, Lena

AU - Friborg, Jeppe

AU - Cange, Hedda Haugen

AU - Vogelius, Ivan R.

PY - 2025/1/31

Y1 - 2025/1/31

N2 - BACKGROUND: A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.AIM: to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).GOAL: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.METHODS: Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).RESULTS: The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.CONCLUSIONS: The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.

AB - BACKGROUND: A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.AIM: to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).GOAL: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.METHODS: Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).RESULTS: The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.CONCLUSIONS: The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.

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