Abstract
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
Originalsprog | Engelsk |
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Artikelnummer | 24124 |
Tidsskrift | Scientific Reports |
Vol/bind | 11 |
Udgave nummer | 1 |
Antal sider | 7 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 |
DOI | |
Status | Udgivet - 16 dec. 2021 |