Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

Julius B. Kirkegaard; Kim Sneppen

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

Julius B. Kirkegaard^*, Kim Sneppen

^*Corresponding author af dette arbejde

Biokompleksitet

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review

9 Citationer (Scopus)

160 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Artikelnummer	24124
Tidsskrift	Scientific Reports
Vol/bind	11
Udgave nummer	1
Antal sider	7
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w
Status	Udgivet - 16 dec. 2021

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10.1038/s41598-021-03126-wLicens: CC BY

s41598-021-03126-wForlagets udgivne version, 24,7 MBLicens: CC BY

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Citationsformater

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