Abstract
Between 1970 and 2000 the climate of West Africa was a¿ected by a severe drought.
The reasons for the sudden change to the dry period are unclear. Therefore, investigations
based on climate model simulations are undertaken to capture the observed decadal climate
variability by including as many sub systems of the Earth Climate System as possible.
Therefore, this work focuses the in¿uence on simulating present day climate by including
the biosphere into the general circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5 to capture the recent
climate in a better way. It is well-known, that there is an ampli¿cation by vegetation on
climate variability, in particular the decadal one. The Simple Vegetation (SVege) model
is used for these coupled experiments. Furthermore, this optimised version is used to set
up climate change simulations in an ensemble mode following the SRES (Special Report
on Emission Scenarios ) greenhouse gas forcings A1B and B1 until the year 2100. It is
assumed, that there will be a change within vegetation cover by a climate change, therefore
the coupled version will be responsive to the climate impact. At least very promising results
by doing this coupling with the former version No. 4 of ECHAM give the motivation for
this work.
To estimate the e¿ect of using the vegetation model, simulations for present day climate
(1960 to 1999) are investigated by using the biosphere-atmosphere model and the stand-
alone version of the GCM both driven by an observed sea surface temperature (SST)
data set (AMIP2). Both versions capture the observed climate of West Africa well and
a small, insigni¿cant shift to a better reproduction of the decadal variability in rainfall is
noticed by including the vegetation model. There are no signi¿cant di¿erences in simulating
present day climate compared to the standard version. So, the coupled version using a
dynamical vegetation model calculating time-dependent values for some surface parameters
(e.g. albedo) gets the same results as using climatological mean numbers.
It will be shown, that the coupled biosphere-atmosphere version captures the decadal
variability better, but even the models are able to simulate the climatological mean state
quite well, it has to be summarised, that both model versions fail to simulate the strength
of the observed decadal variability of precipitation amounts in West Africa. Compared
to similar studies using the previous version of the GCM (ECHAM4), the e¿ect of the
imbedded biosphere is low. Due to some changes in the surface parametrizations and
formulating the surface scheme in a more sophisticated way, it can be assumed, that the
used vegetation formulation is to simple for the new complex version of the GCM.
The analysis of the 240 years (1860 to 2099) climate change simulations concentrates
on possible shifts in precipitation intensities within a warmer world (SRES A1B and B1).
Investigations on the yearly, quarterly, and daily precipitation sums and the analysis of
the simulated tropical rain belt as well as the 2 m temperature are done. For the control
climate (1960 to 1999) it is shown, that signi¿cant di¿erences between the simulations
based on observed and modelled SSTs exist. These di¿erences are due to the two unequal
SST data sets for the period 1960 to 1999 for computing (i) present day climate using
observed values (AMIP2) and (ii) doing climate change experiments based on simulated
(OM1, Ocean Model ) SST patterns. The trends indicate, that there is a possible shift of
daily intensities to higher values. This shift is superimposed by increasing rainfall sums
in summertime (June to August) at the Guinea Coast and less precipitation in the Sahel
leading to a more prominent dipole between the wet Coast and dryer interior. With an
increasing number of extreme precipitation events with respect to monthly rainfall sums
(dry months in the Sahel and wet in the coastal region), the internal variability will increase
and the scarce fresh water resources will become more precarious in a warmer climate. The
changes due to the SRES scenarios are more pronounced in the stronger A1B scenario than
in B1. In summary, the climate change results are similar to the ECHAM5-investigations
pointed out by the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change ) without using a vegetation model.
Originalsprog | Tysk |
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Udgivelsessted | University of Cologne |
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Antal sider | 193 |
Status | Udgivet - 2008 |
Udgivet eksternt | Ja |