A sow replacement model using Bayesian updating in a three-level hierarchic Markov process. I. Biological model

Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological improvements like multi-level hierarchical Markov processes with decisions on multiple time scales, efficient methods for parameter estimations at herd level and standard software that has been hardly implemented at all in any replacement model. The aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses all these methodological improvements. In this paper, the biological model describing the performance and feed intake of sows is presented. In particular, estimation of herd specific parameters is emphasized. The optimization model is described in a subsequent paper