Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Melodie Monod; Alexandra Blenkinsop; Xiaoyue Xi; Daniel Hebert; Sivan Bershan; Simon Tietze; Marc Baguelin; Valerie C. Bradley; Yu Chen; Helen Coupland; Sarah Filippi; Jonathan Ish-Horowicz; Martin McManus; Thomas Mellan; Axel Gandy; Michael Hutchinson; H. Juliette T. Unwin; Sabine L. van Elsland; Michaela A. C. Vollmer; Sebastian Weber; Harrison Zhu; Anne Bezancon; Neil M. Ferguson; Swapnil Mishra; Seth Flaxman; Samir Bhatt; Oliver Ratmann; Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

doi:10.1126/science.abe8372

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

Melodie Monod, Alexandra Blenkinsop, Xiaoyue Xi, Daniel Hebert, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Marc Baguelin, Valerie C. Bradley, Yu Chen, Helen Coupland, Sarah Filippi, Jonathan Ish-Horowicz, Martin McManus, Thomas Mellan, Axel Gandy, Michael Hutchinson, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Sabine L. van Elsland, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Sebastian WeberHarrison Zhu, Anne Bezancon, Neil M. Ferguson, Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Samir Bhatt, Oliver Ratmann, Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

Section of Epidemiology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

111 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

Original language	English
Article number	1336
Journal	Science
Volume	371
Issue number	6536
Number of pages	13
ISSN	0036-8075
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372
Publication status	Published - 2021

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Monod, M., Blenkinsop, A., Xi, X., Hebert, D., Bershan, S., Tietze, S., Baguelin, M., Bradley, V. C., Chen, Y., Coupland, H., Filippi, S., Ish-Horowicz, J., McManus, M., Mellan, T., Gandy, A., Hutchinson, M., Unwin, H. J. T., van Elsland, S. L., Vollmer, M. A. C., ... Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te (2021). Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Science, 371(6536), [1336]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. / Monod, Melodie; Blenkinsop, Alexandra; Xi, Xiaoyue; Hebert, Daniel; Bershan, Sivan; Tietze, Simon; Baguelin, Marc; Bradley, Valerie C.; Chen, Yu; Coupland, Helen; Filippi, Sarah; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan; McManus, Martin; Mellan, Thomas; Gandy, Axel; Hutchinson, Michael; Unwin, H. Juliette T.; van Elsland, Sabine L.; Vollmer, Michaela A. C.; Weber, Sebastian; Zhu, Harrison; Bezancon, Anne; Ferguson, Neil M.; Mishra, Swapnil; Flaxman, Seth; Bhatt, Samir; Ratmann, Oliver; Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te.

In: Science, Vol. 371, No. 6536, 1336, 2021.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Monod, M, Blenkinsop, A, Xi, X, Hebert, D, Bershan, S, Tietze, S, Baguelin, M, Bradley, VC, Chen, Y, Coupland, H, Filippi, S, Ish-Horowicz, J, McManus, M, Mellan, T, Gandy, A, Hutchinson, M, Unwin, HJT, van Elsland, SL, Vollmer, MAC, Weber, S, Zhu, H, Bezancon, A, Ferguson, NM, Mishra, S, Flaxman, S, Bhatt, S, Ratmann, O & Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te 2021, 'Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States', Science, vol. 371, no. 6536, 1336. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372

Monod, Melodie ; Blenkinsop, Alexandra ; Xi, Xiaoyue ; Hebert, Daniel ; Bershan, Sivan ; Tietze, Simon ; Baguelin, Marc ; Bradley, Valerie C. ; Chen, Yu ; Coupland, Helen ; Filippi, Sarah ; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan ; McManus, Martin ; Mellan, Thomas ; Gandy, Axel ; Hutchinson, Michael ; Unwin, H. Juliette T. ; van Elsland, Sabine L. ; Vollmer, Michaela A. C. ; Weber, Sebastian ; Zhu, Harrison ; Bezancon, Anne ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Mishra, Swapnil ; Flaxman, Seth ; Bhatt, Samir ; Ratmann, Oliver ; Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te. / Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. In: Science. 2021 ; Vol. 371, No. 6536.

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title = "Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States",

abstract = "After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.",

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AU - Tietze, Simon

AU - Baguelin, Marc

AU - Bradley, Valerie C.

AU - Chen, Yu

AU - Coupland, Helen

AU - Filippi, Sarah

AU - Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan

AU - McManus, Martin

AU - Mellan, Thomas

AU - Gandy, Axel

AU - Hutchinson, Michael

AU - Unwin, H. Juliette T.

AU - van Elsland, Sabine L.

AU - Vollmer, Michaela A. C.

AU - Weber, Sebastian

AU - Zhu, Harrison

AU - Bezancon, Anne

AU - Ferguson, Neil M.

AU - Mishra, Swapnil

AU - Flaxman, Seth

AU - Bhatt, Samir

AU - Ratmann, Oliver

AU - Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

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AB - After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

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