Approaches to foresight recreation and tourism in nature: Experiences from the Nordic Region

This chapter discusses approaches to do foresights in outdoor recreation and tourism in nature, based on research from the Nordic countries. This region has a long-standing reputation for promoting outdoor recreation, with associated policies aiming to support this tradition for the benefit of future generations and environmental engagement. To do so successfully, one key input is improving the knowledge of outdoor recreational participation, associated trends, and future development. In this chapter, we therefore review different monitoring approaches to trend analyses as a means of forecasting participation and discuss supplementary approaches to foresight in outdoor recreation. We operationalize the Nordic context through studies undertaken in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway. Our examination shows that the tradition of national surveys and on-site visitor monitoring has proven effective. However, contemporary changes in society call for additional approaches to better understand future outdoor recreation. We therefore share experiences from several different approaches to foresight in outdoor recreation. This will inform future research as well as managers, entrepreneurs, planners and policymakers in their decision-making.