Dynamics of transition towards sustainable public food procurement: The case of openhagen

Sustainable, resilient food systems are urgently needed amid climate, health, and biodiversity crises. Public food procurement is a key lever for promoting sustainable healthy diets. This study evaluates Copenhagen's decade-long policy targeting 90% organic food in public kitchens, using a system dynamics approach. A 2005–2050 model was developed using literature search and interviews. The analysis identified three reinforcing and four balancing feedback loops, whose interactions constituted key mechanisms underpinning the system's favourable development towards the current 87% organic share. Strengthening organic procurement revealed positive indicators for health (more plant-based meal composition) and the environment (less meat and food waste). Cost pressure, due to no added budget, was a key structural driver, prompting staff training and scratch cooking to make plant-rich meals widely acceptable. Future-oriented scenario analysis highlights that the combined reduction of food waste and meat consumption delivers the largest climate benefits in public meals, whereas changes in sourcing alone have more limited effects. While strengthening organic procurement may enhance more sustainable and healthier public meals, targeted interventions addressing domestic sourcing are needed to further enhance system resilience.