TY - JOUR
T1 - Economic stabilization in the post-crisis world
T2 - Are fiscal rules the answer?
AU - Bergman, Ulf Michael
AU - Hutchison, Michael M.
N1 - JEL Classification: E32, E62, H5
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - We investigate whether fiscal rules help to reduce the extent of policy procyclicalitydhow government expenditure policy responds to GDP – in a dynamic panel framework with 81 advanced, emerging and developing countries over 1985-2012. We construct two new fiscal rule indices and investigate whether rules help to dampen procyclical policies. We condition our empirical specifications on the degree to which governments appear able to manage and enforce fiscal rules. We find that fiscal rules are very effective in reducing procyclicality of policy once a minimum threshold of government efficiency/quality has been reached. Government efficiency alone is not enough to reduce procyclicality of fiscal policy. However, high government efficiency combined with strong fiscal rules is a potent combination facilitating counter-cyclical policy responses to GDP movements.
AB - We investigate whether fiscal rules help to reduce the extent of policy procyclicalitydhow government expenditure policy responds to GDP – in a dynamic panel framework with 81 advanced, emerging and developing countries over 1985-2012. We construct two new fiscal rule indices and investigate whether rules help to dampen procyclical policies. We condition our empirical specifications on the degree to which governments appear able to manage and enforce fiscal rules. We find that fiscal rules are very effective in reducing procyclicality of policy once a minimum threshold of government efficiency/quality has been reached. Government efficiency alone is not enough to reduce procyclicality of fiscal policy. However, high government efficiency combined with strong fiscal rules is a potent combination facilitating counter-cyclical policy responses to GDP movements.
U2 - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.014
DO - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.014
M3 - Journal article
VL - 52
SP - 82
EP - 101
JO - Journal of International Money and Finance
JF - Journal of International Money and Finance
SN - 0261-5606
ER -