Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis: Trygve Haavelmo and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression

Kevin D. Hoover , Katarina Juselius

Research output: Working paperResearch

Abstract

The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR scenario analysis can be seen as a clear example of Haavelmo's 'experimental' approach; and, in turn, it can be shown to extend and develop Haavelmo's methodology and to address issues that Haavelmo regarded as unresolved.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationKbh.
PublisherØkonomisk institut, Københavns Universitet
Number of pages30
Publication statusPublished - 2012
SeriesUniversity of Copenhagen. Institute of Economics. Discussion Papers (Online)
Number16
Volume12
ISSN1601-2461

Keywords

  • Faculty of Social Sciences

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