Impacts of climate change on pests and diseases of coffee in East Africa and Mesoamerica

In this chapter, the effects of climate change are explored in relation to the coffee crop and its nine major pests and diseases (i.e. American Leaf Spot Disease, Black Coffee Twig Borer, Brown Eye Spot, Coffee Berry Borer, Coffee Berry Disease, Coffee Berry Moth, Coffee Leaf Rust, Coffee Red Blister Disease and Coffee Wilt Disease). Data and primary literature were examined from six coffee producing countries namely Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mesoamerica (with an emphasis on Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras). A so-called “ecosystem dis-equilibrium” was hypothesised, with some coffee pests and diseases predicted to become more of a problem under future climate scenarios, while others could vanish altogether. Using air temperature as a proxy for climate change, we synthesised novel data and expert insights to analyse this hypothesis. This resulted in a classification of coffee pests and diseases based on a “cool” or “warm” climate preference. A geographical shift was also forecasted for the future of coffee cultivation, upward in both latitude and elevation, favoured by “warm” climate preference pests and diseases.