Pro-climate Voting in Response to Local Flooding

Human-caused global warming exacerbates extreme weather events, but evidence of their impact on political behavior is limited. This article presents a twofold study of the effects of severe storm surge flooding on pro-climate voting in Danish elections. Using difference-in-differences research designs and administrative data, the article shows how the electoral effects of local flooding depends on the intensity of the experience. Voting for pro-climate parties in Danish national elections increased by around 2–3% points in polling districts with flooding. Voting for local election candidates, who communicate a priority for climate issues and can have substantial influence on municipal climate policy, also increased four years after the flood, however only in districts with extreme flooding. Severe flooding increased the relative election chances of marginal pro-climate candidates by around 5% points. Responsiveness to local flooding depends on the local extremity of the event and, possibly, local citizens’ pre-existing climate awareness. The ostensibly modest effects are illustrative of electoral decision-making, even if the practical political and environmental implications are limited. By raising the salience of climate issues, personal flooding experience shapes voting behavior in a changing climate.