Real-time dynamic control of the Three Gorges Reservoir by coupling numerical weather rainfall prediction and flood forecasting

Yun Wang, Hua Chen, Dan Rosbjerg, Henrik Madsen, Peter Bauer-Gottwein, Jinxing Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingArticle in proceedingsResearchpeer-review

Abstract

Combining numerical weather rainfall prediction and flood forecasting to enhance forecast accuracy of inflow and extend the lead-time can effectively improve reservoir operation mode. In this study, the Regional Spectrum Model (RSM), which is developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, was used to forecast rainfall with 5 days lead-time in the upper region of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). The Xinanjiang Model was applied to forecast inflow to the TGR. In terms of relative error of inflow, relative error of flood peak and time difference of flood peak the performance of these combined forecasts was compared with that of a forecast based on using observed inflow and assuming that no further rain would fall. Taking the largest flood event in 2012 as an example, all inflow forecasting results were used to implement real-time dynamic control of the FLWL of the TGR. Compared with the designed operation rule, operation results showed that the dynamic control scheme significantly improved hydropower generation without increasing flood risk.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationConsidering Hydrological Change in Reservoir Planning and Management - Proceedings of H09, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly
Number of pages8
PublisherIAHS Press
Publication date2013
Pages75-82
ISBN (Print)9781907161407
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event2013 H09, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly - Gothenburg, Sweden
Duration: 22 Jul 201326 Jul 2013

Conference

Conference2013 H09, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly
Country/TerritorySweden
CityGothenburg
Period22/07/201326/07/2013
SeriesIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Volume362
ISSN0144-7815

Keywords

  • Flood forecasting
  • Flood limited water level
  • Numerical weather rainfall prediction
  • Real-time dynamic control
  • Three Gorges Reservoir

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