Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark

Beate Conrady*, Sten Mortensen, Søren Saxmose Nielsen, Hans Houe, Francisco Fernando Calvo-Artavia, Johanne Ellis-Iversen, Anette Boklund

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
34 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

To forge a path towards livestock disease emergency preparedness in Denmark, 15 different strategies to mitigate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were examined by modelling epidemics initiated in cattle, pig or small ruminant herds across various production systems located in four different Danish regions (Scenario 1), or in one specific livestock production system within each of the three species geographically distributed throughout Denmark (Scenario 2). When additional mitigation strategies were implemented on top of basic control strategies in the European foot-and-mouth disease spread model (EuFMDiS), no significant benefits were predicted in terms of the number of infected farms, the epidemic control duration, and the total economic cost. Further, the model results indicated that the choice of index herd, the resources for outbreak control, and the detection time of FMD significantly influenced the course of an epidemic. The present study results emphasise the importance of basic mitigation strategies, including an effective back-and-forward traceability system, adequate resources for outbreak response, and a high level of awareness among farmers and veterinarians concerning the detection and reporting of FMD at an early stage of an outbreak for FMD control in Denmark.

Original languageEnglish
Article number435
JournalPathogens
Volume12
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 by the authors.

Keywords

  • control strategies
  • economic impact
  • EuFMDiS
  • FMD
  • modelling

Cite this