The promises and missed opportunities of upscaling agroforestry: Lessons from Mexico's Sembrando Vida program

Scaling up agroforestry programs globally has faced significant challenges, despite agroforestry's promise as a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and poverty reduction. Programs worldwide have consistently experienced barriers including insufficient funding, mismatched incentive structures, and the challenges of tailoring programs to diverse landscapes. All of this is compounded by a lack of research going beyond parcel-level analysis. These challenges contribute to the fragmented adoption of agroforestry and hinder the realization of its full potential in mitigating pressing social and environmental challenges worldwide. We examine Sembrando Vida, Mexico's flagship agroforestry program, estimated to cost $13 billion USD, which aimed to restore one million hectares of degraded lands. In this perspectives article, we reflect on our experience researching the Sembrando Vida program complemented with a document analysis of scientific publications, official data and communications, and grey literature. We identify six innovations that advanced agroforestry scaling, including significant financial investment, streamlined governance, technical support, distribution mechanisms, a focus on community cohesion, and gender equity. However, we also highlight three critical shortcomings: limited external evaluation due to government resistance to outside scrutiny, prioritization of social objectives over environmental outcomes, and insufficient measures for climate resilience and market access. These gaps pose risks to the program's effectiveness and sustainability and undermine opportunities for stakeholders to learn from Sembrando Vida. We argue that large-scale agroforestry initiatives require procedural and administrative transparency, robust monitoring, and balanced socio-environmental strategies that enhance long-term adoption and impact. Nonetheless, Sembrando Vida serves as both a milestone in agroforestry policy and sheds light on the complexities of scaling nature-based solutions in diverse socio-ecological contexts.