The Short-term Predictive Value of Vessel Wall Stiffness on Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Growth

Background: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surveillance programs are currently based solely on AAA diameter. The diameter criterion alone, however, seems inadequate as small AAAs comprise 5–10 % of ruptured AAAs as well as some large AAAs never rupture. Aneurysm wall stiffness has been suggested to predict rupture and growth; this study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of AAA vessel wall stiffness for growth on prospectively collected data. Methods: Analysis was based on data from a randomised, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial investigating mast-cell-inhibitors to halt aneurysm growth (the AORTA trial). Systolic and diastolic AAA diameter was determined in 326 patients using electrocardiogram-gated ultrasound (US). Stiffness was calculated at baseline and after 1 year. Results: Maximum AAA diameter increased from 44.1 mm to 46.5 mm during the study period. Aneurysm growth after 1 year was not predicted by baseline stiffness (-0.003 mm/U; 95 % CI: -0.007 to 0.001 mm/U; P = 0.15). Throughout the study period, stiffness remained unchanged (8.3 U; 95 % CI: -2.5 to 19.1 U; P = 0.13) and without significant correlation to aneurysm growth (R: 0.053; P = 0.38). Conclusions: Following a rigorous US protocol, this study could not confirm AAA vessel wall stiffness as a predictor of aneurysm growth in a 1-year follow-up design. The need for new and subtle methods to complement diameter for improved AAA risk assessment is warranted.