Utilizing echocardiography and unsupervised machine learning for heart failure risk identification

Background: Global longitudinal strain (GLS) is recognized as a powerful predictor of heart failure (HF). However, the entire strain curve may entail important prognostic information regarding HF risk that might be undiscovered by only focusing on the peak strain value. Objective: The hypothesis of the present study was, that analysis of the entire strain curve using unsupervised machine learning (uML) would reveal novel ventricular deformation patterns capable of predicting incident HF independently of GLS. Methods: Longitudinal strain curves from 3710 subjects from the general population without prevalent HF were analyzed using uML. Results: Mean age was 56 years and 43 % were male. During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 92 subjects (2.5 %) developed HF. The uML algorithm generated a hierarchical clustering tree (HCT) resulting in 10 different clusters. Generally, the strain curves displayed reduced early diastolic strain to peak-strain ratio with an increasing incidence rate of HF. In multivariable Cox regressions, cluster 9 was significantly associated with increased risk of HF when compared to cluster 2–5, and 7–8 [For cluster 3: HR 8.95, 95 %CI: 2.08;38.48, P = 0.003] even though the subjects of cluster 9 were younger, displayed healthier clinical baseline characteristics, and only had slightly reduced GLS. The mean strain curve of cluster 9 displayed an early systolic lengthening followed by a late and reduced contraction specifically related to the basal lateral segment. Conclusion: The unsupervised machine learning algorithm identified unknown strain patterns beyond GLS presumably related to increased risk of HF.